Highlanders vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Highlanders 37.0%draw 2.5%60.5% LionsLions 79.7%draw 2.5%17.8% HighlandersHighlanders 27.8%draw 2.5%69.7% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Highlanders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Lions and 15 Highlanders, with the middle run at 3 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Highlanders are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Highlanders, negative favours Lions.
Highlanders 1328, Lions 1678 — 351 points, favouring Lions
Highlanders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Highlanders2–0–3Lions5 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Highlanders by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-18 | Lions 38–29 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2018-05-12 | Highlanders 39–27 Lions | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2016-07-30 | Lions 42–30 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2016-03-12 | Highlanders 34–15 Lions | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2015-05-09 | Lions 28–23 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.