Highlanders vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Highlanders 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 59.7%draw 2.5%37.8% HighlandersHighlanders 51.3%draw 2.5%46.2% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Highlanders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 New South Wales Waratahs and 24 Highlanders, with the middle run at 4 Highlanders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Highlanders are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Highlanders, negative favours New South Wales Waratahs.
Highlanders 1328, New South Wales Waratahs 1311 — 17 points, favouring Highlanders
Highlanders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Highlanders8–0–5New South Wales Waratahs13 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Highlanders by 5.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Highlanders by 4.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Highlanders 31–26 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-02-14 | New South Wales Waratahs 37–36 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-03-08 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–23 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-04-28 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–20 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-05-22 | Highlanders 20–32 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.