Highlanders vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Highlanders 66.2%draw 2.5%31.3% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 60.6%draw 2.5%36.9% HighlandersHighlanders 51.6%draw 2.5%45.9% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Highlanders v New South Wales Waratahs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Highlanders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 New South Wales Waratahs and 24 Highlanders, half of them between 4 New South Wales Waratahs and 13 Highlanders, with the middle run at 4 Highlanders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Highlanders are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Highlanders winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Highlanders, a bar to the left helps New South Wales Waratahs.
Highlanders 1314, New South Wales Waratahs 1289 — 25 points, favouring Highlanders
Highlanders are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Highlanders8–0–5New South Wales Waratahs13 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Highlanders by 5.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Highlanders by 4.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Highlanders 31–26 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2025-02-14 | New South Wales Waratahs 37–36 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-03-08 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–23 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-04-28 | New South Wales Waratahs 21–20 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-05-22 | Highlanders 20–32 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.