Highlanders vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Highlanders 54.0%draw 2.5%43.5% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 73.1%draw 2.5%24.4% HighlandersHighlanders 38.8%draw 2.5%58.7% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Highlanders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Queensland Reds and 22 Highlanders, half of them between 6 Queensland Reds and 11 Highlanders, with the middle run at 1 Highlanders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Highlanders are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Highlanders winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Highlanders, a bar to the left helps Queensland Reds.
Highlanders 1314, Queensland Reds 1460 — 146 points, favouring Queensland Reds
Highlanders are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Highlanders7–0–4Queensland Reds11 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Highlanders by 1.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Highlanders by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Queensland Reds 31–14 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-03-22 | Highlanders 23–29 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-04-19 | Queensland Reds 31–0 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2023-05-26 | Highlanders 35–30 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2022-05-06 | Queensland Reds 19–27 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.