Highlanders vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Highlanders 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 69.6%draw 2.5%27.9% HighlandersHighlanders 38.6%draw 2.5%58.9% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Highlanders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Queensland Reds and 22 Highlanders, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Highlanders are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Highlanders, negative favours Queensland Reds.
Highlanders 1328, Queensland Reds 1454 — 126 points, favouring Queensland Reds
Highlanders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Highlanders7–0–4Queensland Reds11 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Highlanders by 1.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Highlanders by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Queensland Reds 31–14 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-03-22 | Highlanders 23–29 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-04-19 | Queensland Reds 31–0 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2023-05-26 | Highlanders 35–30 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2022-05-06 | Queensland Reds 19–27 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.