Highlanders vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Highlanders 34.4%draw 2.5%63.1% StormersStormers 79.6%draw 2.5%17.9% HighlandersHighlanders 25.9%draw 2.5%71.6% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Highlanders wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Stormers and 14 Highlanders, with the middle run at 4 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Highlanders are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Highlanders, negative favours Stormers.
Highlanders 1328, Stormers 1716 — 388 points, favouring Stormers
Highlanders are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Highlanders3–0–1Stormers4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Highlanders by 16.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-25 | Stormers 34–22 Highlanders | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2018-03-09 | Highlanders 33–15 Stormers | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2017-04-28 | Highlanders 57–14 Stormers | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2015-03-28 | Highlanders 39–21 Stormers | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.