Hong Kong China vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Hong Kong China 8.4%90.6% JapanJapan 96.1%2.9% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 5.4%93.6% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Hong Kong China v Japan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 47 Japan and 1 Japan, half of them between 32 Japan and 5 Japan, with the middle run at 16 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-15 on a tight afternoon and 43-27 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hong Kong China winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hong Kong China, a bar to the left helps Japan.
Hong Kong China 1297, Japan 1846 — 549 points, favouring Japan
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China5–0–31Japan36 meetings, 1969 to 2017 · Japan by 29.1 on average
Last 10: 0–0–10 · Japan by 40.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-13 | Hong Kong China 0–16 Japan | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground |
| 2017-05-06 | Japan 29–17 Hong Kong China | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2016-05-28 | Japan 59–17 Hong Kong China | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2016-05-07 | Hong Kong China 3–38 Japan | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground |
| 2015-05-02 | Japan 41–0 Hong Kong China | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 36. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.