Hong Kong China vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Hong Kong China 32.8%draw 2.4%64.8% PortugalPortugal 74.2%draw 2.4%23.4% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 28.0%draw 2.4%69.6% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 33 Portugal and 13 Hong Kong China, with the middle run at 6 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Hong Kong China, negative favours Portugal.
Hong Kong China 937, Portugal 1121 — 184 points, favouring Portugal
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China0–0–2Portugal2 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Portugal by 37.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Portugal 58–12 Hong Kong China | — | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| 2022-11-06 | Portugal 42–14 Hong Kong China | — | The Sevens |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.