Hong Kong China vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Hong Kong China 21.7%draw 1.5%76.8% PortugalPortugal 91.9%draw 1.5%6.6% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 13.2%draw 1.5%85.3% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Hong Kong China v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 39 Portugal and 9 Hong Kong China, half of them between 25 Portugal and 1 Portugal, with the middle run at 10 Portugal.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hong Kong China winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hong Kong China, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
Hong Kong China 1297, Portugal 1638 — 341 points, favouring Portugal
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China1–0–2Portugal3 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Portugal by 22.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | Portugal 58–12 Hong Kong China | — | Estadio Nacional do Jamor |
| 2022-11-06 | Portugal 42–14 Hong Kong China | — | The Sevens |
| 2015-11-17 | Hong Kong China 13–6 Portugal | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.