Hong Kong China vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Hong Kong China 64.2%draw 2.6%33.2% RussiaRussia 52.8%draw 2.6%44.6% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 55.0%draw 2.6%42.4% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Hong Kong China v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Russia and 29 Hong Kong China, half of them between 3 Russia and 16 Hong Kong China, with the middle run at 5 Hong Kong China.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hong Kong China winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hong Kong China, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Hong Kong China 1297, Russia 1137 — 160 points, favouring Hong Kong China
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China0–0–5Russia5 meetings, 2014 to 2017 · Russia by 16.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-11-10 | Hong Kong China 13–16 Russia | — | Kings Park Sports Ground |
| 2016-11-19 | Hong Kong China 0–27 Russia | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground |
| 2015-11-21 | Hong Kong China 12–31 Russia | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground |
| 2014-11-15 | Hong Kong China 27–39 Russia | — | Hong Kong Football Club Ground |
| 2014-11-08 | Hong Kong China 10–31 Russia | — | Kings Park Sports Ground |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.