Hong Kong China vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Hong Kong China 37.5%draw 2.6%59.9% TongaTonga 79.9%draw 2.6%17.5% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 26.9%draw 2.6%70.5% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Hong Kong China v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 31 Tonga and 14 Hong Kong China, half of them between 17 Tonga and 4 Hong Kong China, with the middle run at 4 Tonga.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hong Kong China winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hong Kong China, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Hong Kong China 1297, Tonga 1454 — 157 points, favouring Tonga
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China0–0–1Tonga1 meeting, 2022 to 2022 · Tonga by 22.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-23 | Tonga 44–22 Hong Kong China | — | Sunshine Coast Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.