Hong Kong China vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Hong Kong China 31.7%draw 2.2%66.1% UruguayUruguay 84.6%draw 2.2%13.2% Hong Kong ChinaHong Kong China 21.6%draw 2.2%76.2% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Hong Kong China v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hong Kong China wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 28 Uruguay and 15 Hong Kong China, half of them between 15 Uruguay and 4 Hong Kong China, with the middle run at 4 Uruguay.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Hong Kong China are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hong Kong China winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hong Kong China, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Hong Kong China 1297, Uruguay 1520 — 223 points, favouring Uruguay
Hong Kong China are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hong Kong China1–0–1Uruguay2 meetings, 2014 to 2026 · Uruguay by 11.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Uruguay 40–42 Hong Kong China | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2014-08-02 | Uruguay 28–3 Hong Kong China | — | Estadio Charrúa |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.