Hurricanes vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Hurricanes 73.7%draw 2.5%23.8% LionsLions 47.8%draw 2.5%49.7% HurricanesHurricanes 61.9%draw 2.5%35.6% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hurricanes wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Lions and 31 Hurricanes, with the middle run at 8 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Hurricanes are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Hurricanes, negative favours Lions.
Hurricanes 1864, Lions 1678 — 186 points, favouring Hurricanes
Hurricanes are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hurricanes4–0–1Lions5 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Hurricanes by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-08 | Lions 17–37 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2018-05-05 | Hurricanes 28–19 Lions | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2017-07-29 | Lions 44–29 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2016-08-06 | Hurricanes 20–3 Lions | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2015-02-13 | Lions 8–22 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.