Hurricanes vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Hurricanes 83.2%draw 2.5%14.3% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 23.7%draw 2.5%73.8% HurricanesHurricanes 79.4%draw 2.5%18.1% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hurricanes wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 New South Wales Waratahs and 37 Hurricanes, with the middle run at 12 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-26 on an open one.
Why Hurricanes are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Hurricanes, negative favours New South Wales Waratahs.
Hurricanes 1864, New South Wales Waratahs 1311 — 553 points, favouring Hurricanes
Hurricanes are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hurricanes9–0–1New South Wales Waratahs10 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 16.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | New South Wales Waratahs 19–59 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-03-28 | Hurricanes 57–12 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2024-05-03 | Hurricanes 41–12 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2023-03-17 | Hurricanes 34–17 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2022-05-14 | New South Wales Waratahs 18–22 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Leichhardt Oval |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.