Hurricanes vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Hurricanes 84.9%draw 2.5%12.6% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 24.1%draw 2.5%73.4% HurricanesHurricanes 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Hurricanes v New South Wales Waratahs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hurricanes wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 New South Wales Waratahs and 37 Hurricanes, half of them between 3 Hurricanes and 23 Hurricanes, with the middle run at 12 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Hurricanes are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hurricanes winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hurricanes, a bar to the left helps New South Wales Waratahs.
Hurricanes 1912, New South Wales Waratahs 1289 — 623 points, favouring Hurricanes
Hurricanes are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hurricanes9–0–1New South Wales Waratahs10 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 16.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | New South Wales Waratahs 19–59 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-03-28 | Hurricanes 57–12 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2024-05-03 | Hurricanes 41–12 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2023-03-17 | Hurricanes 34–17 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2022-05-14 | New South Wales Waratahs 18–22 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Leichhardt Oval |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.