Hurricanes vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Hurricanes 81.4%draw 2.5%16.1% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 32.4%draw 2.5%65.1% HurricanesHurricanes 73.2%draw 2.5%24.3% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hurricanes wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Queensland Reds and 37 Hurricanes, with the middle run at 11 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Hurricanes are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Hurricanes, negative favours Queensland Reds.
Hurricanes 1864, Queensland Reds 1454 — 410 points, favouring Hurricanes
Hurricanes are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hurricanes10–0–0Queensland Reds10 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 17.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Hurricanes 52–14 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-05-23 | Queensland Reds 27–31 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024-03-03 | Hurricanes 38–33 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
| 2023-02-25 | Queensland Reds 13–47 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Queensland Country Bank Stadium |
| 2022-04-23 | Hurricanes 30–17 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.