Hurricanes vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Hurricanes 85.7%draw 2.5%11.8% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 34.3%draw 2.5%63.2% HurricanesHurricanes 74.2%draw 2.5%23.3% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Hurricanes v Queensland Reds, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hurricanes wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Queensland Reds and 36 Hurricanes, half of them between 3 Hurricanes and 23 Hurricanes, with the middle run at 12 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Hurricanes are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Hurricanes winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Hurricanes, a bar to the left helps Queensland Reds.
Hurricanes 1912, Queensland Reds 1460 — 452 points, favouring Hurricanes
Hurricanes are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hurricanes10–0–0Queensland Reds10 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 17.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Hurricanes 52–14 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-05-23 | Queensland Reds 27–31 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024-03-03 | Hurricanes 38–33 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
| 2023-02-25 | Queensland Reds 13–47 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Queensland Country Bank Stadium |
| 2022-04-23 | Hurricanes 30–17 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.