Hurricanes vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Hurricanes 68.6%draw 2.5%28.9% StormersStormers 50.8%draw 2.5%46.7% HurricanesHurricanes 57.8%draw 2.5%39.7% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hurricanes wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Stormers and 27 Hurricanes, with the middle run at 6 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Hurricanes are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Hurricanes, negative favours Stormers.
Hurricanes 1864, Stormers 1716 — 148 points, favouring Hurricanes
Hurricanes are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hurricanes3–0–1Stormers4 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Hurricanes by 0.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-01 | Stormers 27–0 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2019-03-23 | Hurricanes 34–28 Stormers | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2017-05-05 | Hurricanes 41–22 Stormers | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2015-04-03 | Hurricanes 25–20 Stormers | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.