Hurricanes vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Hurricanes 80.2%draw 2.5%17.3% Western ForceWestern Force 32.9%draw 2.5%64.6% HurricanesHurricanes 72.8%draw 2.5%24.7% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Hurricanes wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Western Force and 37 Hurricanes, with the middle run at 12 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Hurricanes are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Hurricanes, negative favours Western Force.
Hurricanes 1864, Western Force 1463 — 401 points, favouring Hurricanes
Hurricanes are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Hurricanes7–1–1Western Force9 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 17.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Hurricanes 31–23 Western Force | Super Rugby | McLean Park |
| 2025-04-19 | Western Force 17–17 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2024-02-23 | Western Force 14–44 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
| 2023-04-02 | Hurricanes 45–42 Western Force | Super Rugby | Central Energy Trust Arena |
| 2022-05-28 | Western Force 27–22 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.