Japan vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 85.1%draw 2.3%12.6% PortugalPortugal 32.4%draw 2.3%65.3% JapanJapan 76.2%draw 2.3%21.5% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Portugal and 44 Japan, half of them between 4 Japan and 30 Japan, with the middle run at 14 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-23 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
Japan 1846, Portugal 1638 — 208 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan1–0–0Portugal1 meeting, 2021 to 2021 · Japan by 13.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-13 | Portugal 25–38 Japan | — | Estádio Municipal Cidade de Coimbra |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.