Japan vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 93.9%5.1% RomaniaRomania 11.8%87.2% JapanJapan 90.7%8.3% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Japan and 50 Japan, half of them between 7 Japan and 36 Japan, with the middle run at 19 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-13 on a tight afternoon and 44-25 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Japan 1846, Romania 1265 — 581 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan5–0–2Romania7 meetings, 1995 to 2017 · Japan by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-10 | Japan 33–21 Romania | — | Egao Health (Umakana Yokana) Stadium |
| 2014-11-15 | Romania 13–18 Japan | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2012-11-10 | Romania 23–34 Japan | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2005-05-25 | Japan 23–16 Romania | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2004-11-20 | Romania 25–10 Japan | — | Stadionul Steaua II |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.