Japan vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 96.9%2.1% RussiaRussia 5.4%93.6% JapanJapan 95.4%3.6% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v Russia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Japan and 53 Japan, half of them between 8 Japan and 38 Japan, with the middle run at 21 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 46-25 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Russia.
Japan 1846, Russia 1137 — 709 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan6–0–1Russia7 meetings, 2002 to 2019 · Japan by 24.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-20 | Japan 30–10 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2018-11-24 | Russia 27–32 Japan | — | Kingsholm |
| 2013-11-15 | Russia 13–40 Japan | — | Parc Eirias(neutral) |
| 2010-11-06 | Japan 75–3 Russia | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2004-05-27 | Japan 29–12 Russia | — | National Olympic Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.