Japan vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Japan 92.5%6.5% RussiaRussia 10.1%88.9% JapanJapan 90.7%8.3% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Japan and 51 Japan, with the middle run at 21 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Japan, negative favours Russia.
Japan 1310, Russia 425 — 885 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan2–0–0Russia2 meetings, 2018 to 2019 · Japan by 12.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-20 | Japan 30–10 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2018-11-24 | Russia 27–32 Japan | — | Kingsholm |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.