Japan vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Japan 14.4%84.6% ScotlandScotland 89.3%9.7% JapanJapan 11.9%draw 1.1%87.0% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 31 Scotland and 7 Japan, with the middle run at 9 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Japan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Japan, negative favours Scotland.
Japan 1310, Scotland 1730 — 420 points, favouring Scotland
Japan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan1–0–6Scotland7 meetings, 1991 to 2021 · Scotland by 16.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-20 | Scotland 29–20 Japan | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2019-10-13 | Japan 28–21 Scotland | Rugby World Cup | International Stadium Yokohama |
| 2016-06-25 | Japan 16–21 Scotland | — | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2016-06-18 | Japan 13–26 Scotland | — | City of Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-09-23 | Scotland 45–10 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Kingsholm(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.