Japan vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 19.7%draw 1.4%78.9% ScotlandScotland 90.7%draw 1.4%7.9% JapanJapan 10.9%draw 1.5%87.6% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 35 Scotland and 12 Japan, half of them between 22 Scotland and 1 Scotland, with the middle run at 9 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Japan are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Japan 1846, Scotland 2193 — 347 points, favouring Scotland
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan2–0–11Scotland13 meetings, 1976 to 2021 · Scotland by 25.5 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Scotland by 22.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-20 | Scotland 29–20 Japan | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2019-10-13 | Japan 28–21 Scotland | Rugby World Cup | International Stadium Yokohama |
| 2016-06-25 | Japan 16–21 Scotland | — | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2016-06-18 | Japan 13–26 Scotland | — | City of Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-09-23 | Scotland 45–10 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Kingsholm(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.