Japan vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Japan 8.0%91.0% South AfricaSouth Africa 94.2%4.8% JapanJapan 6.4%92.6% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 46 South Africa and 1 South Africa, with the middle run at 16 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-13 on a tight afternoon and 41-25 on an open one.
Why Japan are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Japan, negative favours South Africa.
Japan 1310, South Africa 2036 — 726 points, favouring South Africa
Japan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan1–0–3South Africa4 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · South Africa by 27.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | South Africa 61–7 Japan | — | Wembley Stadium(neutral) |
| 2019-10-20 | Japan 3–26 South Africa | Rugby World Cup | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2019-09-06 | Japan 7–41 South Africa | — | Kumagaya Rugby Stadium |
| 2015-09-19 | South Africa 32–34 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Brighton Community Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.