Japan vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 8.2%90.8% South AfricaSouth Africa 93.3%5.7% JapanJapan 6.8%92.2% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 49 South Africa and 1 South Africa, half of them between 33 South Africa and 5 South Africa, with the middle run at 17 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 31-14 on a tight afternoon and 44-27 on an open one.
Why Japan are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Japan 1846, South Africa 2512 — 666 points, favouring South Africa
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan1–0–3South Africa4 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · South Africa by 27.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | South Africa 61–7 Japan | — | Wembley Stadium(neutral) |
| 2019-10-20 | Japan 3–26 South Africa | Rugby World Cup | Ajinomoto Stadium |
| 2019-09-06 | Japan 7–41 South Africa | — | Kumagaya Rugby Stadium |
| 2015-09-19 | South Africa 32–34 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Brighton Community Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.