Japan vs Spain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 89.8%draw 1.9%8.3% SpainSpain 25.8%draw 1.9%72.3% JapanJapan 82.1%draw 1.9%16.0% SpainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v Spain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 47 Japan, half of them between 6 Japan and 33 Japan, with the middle run at 18 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-12 on a tight afternoon and 41-23 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Spain.
Japan 1846, Spain 1566 — 280 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan3–0–0Spain3 meetings, 1999 to 2013 · Japan by 23.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-11-23 | Spain 7–40 Japan | — | Estadio Nacional Universidad Complutense |
| 2005-11-05 | Japan 44–29 Spain | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 1999-08-20 | Japan 30–7 Spain | — | National Kasumigaoka Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.