Japan vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Japan 82.3%draw 1.3%16.4% TongaTonga 23.7%draw 1.3%75.0% JapanJapan 78.7%draw 1.3%20.0% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Tonga and 48 Japan, with the middle run at 17 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-12 on a tight afternoon and 40-23 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Japan, negative favours Tonga.
Japan 1310, Tonga 938 — 373 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan2–0–1Tonga3 meetings, 2011 to 2023 · Japan by 8.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-29 | Japan 21–16 Tonga | — | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Japan 39–6 Tonga | — | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2011-09-21 | Tonga 31–18 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Semenoff Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.