Japan vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 92.4%draw 1.2%6.4% TongaTonga 16.8%draw 1.2%82.0% JapanJapan 88.0%draw 1.2%10.8% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Japan and 46 Japan, half of them between 6 Japan and 32 Japan, with the middle run at 17 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-13 on a tight afternoon and 41-24 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Japan 1846, Tonga 1454 — 392 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan11–0–9Tonga20 meetings, 1990 to 2025 · Japan by 2.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Japan by 7.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | Tonga 24–62 Japan | — | DICK'S Sporting Goods Park(neutral) |
| 2023-07-29 | Japan 21–16 Tonga | — | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2019-08-03 | Japan 41–7 Tonga | — | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2017-11-18 | Japan 39–6 Tonga | — | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2015-08-03 | Tonga 31–20 Japan | — | Swanguard Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.