Japan vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Japan 92.4%draw 1.6%6.0% UruguayUruguay 21.9%draw 1.6%76.5% JapanJapan 85.5%draw 1.6%12.9% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Japan v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Japan and 49 Japan, half of them between 7 Japan and 34 Japan, with the middle run at 19 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-11 on a tight afternoon and 41-22 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Japan winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Japan, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Japan 1846, Uruguay 1520 — 326 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan5–0–1Uruguay6 meetings, 2005 to 2024 · Japan by 21.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | Japan 36–20 Uruguay | — | Chambéry Savoie Stadium |
| 2022-06-25 | Japan 43–7 Uruguay | — | Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu |
| 2022-06-18 | Japan 34–15 Uruguay | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2015-08-29 | Japan 40–0 Uruguay | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2015-08-22 | Japan 30–8 Uruguay | — | Best Denki Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.