Japan vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Japan 75.5%draw 2.7%21.8% UruguayUruguay 50.2%draw 2.7%47.1% JapanJapan 59.4%draw 2.7%37.9% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Japan wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Uruguay and 33 Japan, with the middle run at 8 Japan.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Japan are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Japan, negative favours Uruguay.
Japan 1310, Uruguay 1177 — 134 points, favouring Japan
Japan are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Japan5–0–0Uruguay5 meetings, 2015 to 2024 · Japan by 26.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | Japan 36–20 Uruguay | — | Chambéry Savoie Stadium |
| 2022-06-25 | Japan 43–7 Uruguay | — | Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu |
| 2022-06-18 | Japan 34–15 Uruguay | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2015-08-29 | Japan 40–0 Uruguay | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2015-08-22 | Japan 30–8 Uruguay | — | Best Denki Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.