La Rochelle vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 53.0%draw 2.5%44.5% LeinsterLeinster 74.3%draw 2.5%23.2% La RochelleLa Rochelle 37.8%draw 2.5%59.7% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Leinster and 20 La Rochelle, half of them between 6 Leinster and 10 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 1 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
La Rochelle 1820, Leinster 1915 — 95 points, favouring Leinster
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle3–0–4Leinster7 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Leinster by 3.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Leinster 25–24 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-01-12 | La Rochelle 14–16 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-04-13 | Leinster 40–13 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-12-10 | La Rochelle 9–16 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2023-05-20 | Leinster 26–27 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.