La Rochelle vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 47.5%draw 2.5%50.0% LeinsterLeinster 73.6%draw 2.5%23.9% La RochelleLa Rochelle 35.5%draw 2.5%62.0% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Leinster and 16 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 1 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Leinster.
La Rochelle 1748, Leinster 1912 — 164 points, favouring Leinster
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle3–0–4Leinster7 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Leinster by 3.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Leinster 25–24 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2025-01-12 | La Rochelle 14–16 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-04-13 | Leinster 40–13 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2023-12-10 | La Rochelle 9–16 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2023-05-20 | Leinster 26–27 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.