La Rochelle vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 78.8%draw 2.5%18.7% LyonLyon 39.7%draw 2.5%57.8% La RochelleLa Rochelle 67.4%draw 2.5%30.1% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Lyon and 30 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 8 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Lyon.
La Rochelle 1748, Lyon 1429 — 319 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle11–3–7Lyon21 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · La Rochelle by 2.6 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · La Rochelle by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Lyon 19–36 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-02-15 | Lyon 53–17 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-10-05 | La Rochelle 43–22 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-02-17 | Lyon 28–17 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2023-08-26 | La Rochelle 35–14 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.