La Rochelle vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 82.7%draw 2.5%14.8% LyonLyon 44.5%draw 2.5%53.0% La RochelleLa Rochelle 69.7%draw 2.5%27.8% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Lyon and 30 La Rochelle, half of them between 2 La Rochelle and 19 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 9 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
La Rochelle 1820, Lyon 1487 — 333 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle12–1–8Lyon21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 2.2 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · La Rochelle by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Lyon 16–28 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2026-01-31 | La Rochelle 24–44 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-10-25 | Lyon 19–36 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-02-15 | Lyon 53–17 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-10-05 | La Rochelle 43–22 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.