La Rochelle vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 61.7%draw 2.5%35.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 76.3%draw 2.5%21.2% La RochelleLa Rochelle 40.7%draw 2.5%56.8% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Montpellier Herault and 21 La Rochelle, half of them between 5 Montpellier Herault and 11 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 3 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
La Rochelle 1820, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 152 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle10–1–13Montpellier Herault24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 1.8 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Montpellier Herault by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | La Rochelle 33–43 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-10-04 | Montpellier Herault 37–13 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-05-18 | La Rochelle 47–18 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-10-26 | Montpellier Herault 16–0 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-02-03 | La Rochelle 18–10 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.