La Rochelle vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 56.2%draw 2.5%41.3% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 67.1%draw 2.5%30.4% La RochelleLa Rochelle 43.8%draw 2.5%53.7% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Montpellier Herault and 22 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 2 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
La Rochelle 1748, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 134 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle9–1–13Montpellier Herault23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Montpellier Herault by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | La Rochelle 33–43 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-10-04 | Montpellier Herault 37–13 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-05-18 | La Rochelle 47–18 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-10-26 | Montpellier Herault 16–0 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-02-03 | La Rochelle 18–10 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.