La Rochelle vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 60.8%draw 2.5%36.7% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% La RochelleLa Rochelle 44.7%draw 2.5%52.8% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Northampton Saints and 27 La Rochelle, half of them between 4 Northampton Saints and 15 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 4 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
La Rochelle 1820, Northampton Saints 1957 — 137 points, favouring Northampton Saints
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle2–0–0Northampton Saints2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · La Rochelle by 26.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Northampton Saints 13–31 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2022-12-10 | La Rochelle 46–12 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.