La Rochelle vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 73.9%draw 2.5%23.6% PauPau 68.9%draw 2.5%28.6% La RochelleLa Rochelle 53.1%draw 2.5%44.4% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Pau and 25 La Rochelle, half of them between level and 14 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 6 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Pau.
La Rochelle 1820, Pau 1818 — 2 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle16–0–6Pau22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 9.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Pau by 1.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Pau 39–17 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2026-03-21 | La Rochelle 20–6 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-11-30 | Pau 53–33 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-06-07 | Pau 32–18 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-09-21 | La Rochelle 49–25 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.