La Rochelle vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% PerpignanLa Rochelle 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Perpignan and 39 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 12 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Perpignan.
La Rochelle 1748, Perpignan 1346 — 402 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle7–0–3Perpignan10 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 12.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Perpignan 29–31 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-09-27 | La Rochelle 31–8 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-12-29 | Perpignan 21–13 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-02-24 | Perpignan 27–15 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2023-12-02 | La Rochelle 35–6 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.