La Rochelle vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 84.8%draw 2.5%12.7% PerpignanPerpignan 42.7%draw 2.5%54.8% La RochelleLa Rochelle 71.8%draw 2.5%25.7% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Perpignan and 36 La Rochelle, half of them between 3 La Rochelle and 24 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 12 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
La Rochelle 1820, Perpignan 1424 — 397 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle9–0–3Perpignan12 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 13.8 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · La Rochelle by 11.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Perpignan 29–31 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-09-27 | La Rochelle 31–8 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-05-31 | La Rochelle 38–15 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-12-29 | Perpignan 21–13 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-02-24 | Perpignan 27–15 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.