La Rochelle vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% Racing 92Racing 92 59.2%draw 2.5%38.3% La RochelleLa Rochelle 52.6%draw 2.5%44.9% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Racing 92 and 25 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 5 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Racing 92.
La Rochelle 1748, Racing 92 1707 — 41 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle13–2–10Racing 9225 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 1.3 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · La Rochelle by 3.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Racing 92 24–26 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-11-02 | La Rochelle 33–6 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-02-22 | La Rochelle 21–26 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-09-28 | Racing 92 16–17 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Dominique Duvauchelle |
| 2024-06-08 | La Rochelle 24–19 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.