La Rochelle vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 71.8%draw 2.5%25.7% Sale SharksSale Sharks 50.9%draw 2.5%46.6% La RochelleLa Rochelle 58.1%draw 2.5%39.4% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Sale Sharks and 30 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 7 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Sale Sharks.
La Rochelle 1748, Sale Sharks 1558 — 190 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle4–0–1Sale Sharks5 meetings, 2019 to 2024 · La Rochelle by 7.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-21 | Sale Sharks 24–37 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2021-04-10 | La Rochelle 45–21 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2020-01-10 | La Rochelle 30–23 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2019-11-24 | Sale Sharks 25–15 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2019-04-20 | La Rochelle 24–20 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.