La Rochelle vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 77.5%draw 2.5%20.0% Sale SharksSale Sharks 44.2%draw 2.5%53.3% La RochelleLa Rochelle 66.8%draw 2.5%30.7% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Sale Sharks and 33 La Rochelle, half of them between 1 La Rochelle and 21 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 9 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
La Rochelle 1820, Sale Sharks 1504 — 316 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle4–0–1Sale Sharks5 meetings, 2019 to 2024 · La Rochelle by 7.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-21 | Sale Sharks 24–37 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2021-04-10 | La Rochelle 45–21 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2020-01-10 | La Rochelle 30–23 Sale Sharks | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2019-11-24 | Sale Sharks 25–15 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2019-04-20 | La Rochelle 24–20 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.