La Rochelle vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 50.3%draw 2.5%47.2% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 65.6%draw 2.5%31.9% La RochelleLa Rochelle 40.6%draw 2.5%56.9% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Francais Paris and 17 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 1 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
La Rochelle 1748, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 27 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle10–1–12Stade Francais Paris23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 0.7 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Stade Francais Paris 45–5 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2026-06-06 | La Rochelle 27–22 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-10-11 | Stade Francais Paris 26–24 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-03-01 | Stade Francais Paris 22–17 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-11-02 | La Rochelle 35–18 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.