La Rochelle vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Stade Francais Paris host La Rochelle on Saturday 31 October at Stade Jean Bouin, Paris, so Stade Francais Paris are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
La Rochelle 73.7%draw 2.5%23.8% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% La RochelleLa Rochelle 55.9%draw 2.5%41.6% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Stade Francais Paris v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Stade Francais Paris wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 La Rochelle and 21 Stade Francais Paris, half of them between 4 La Rochelle and 11 Stade Francais Paris, with the middle run at 3 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Stade Francais Paris are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Stade Francais Paris winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Stade Francais Paris, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Stade Francais Paris 1731, La Rochelle 1820 — 89 points, favouring La Rochelle
Stade Francais Paris are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle11–1–12Stade Francais Paris24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 0.6 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Stade Francais Paris 45–5 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2026-06-06 | La Rochelle 27–22 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-10-11 | Stade Francais Paris 26–24 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-03-01 | Stade Francais Paris 22–17 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-11-02 | La Rochelle 35–18 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.