La Rochelle vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 65.3%draw 2.5%32.2% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 77.3%draw 2.5%20.2% La RochelleLa Rochelle 41.7%draw 2.5%55.8% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Toulousain and 23 La Rochelle, half of them between 3 Stade Toulousain and 13 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 4 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
La Rochelle 1820, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 172 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle10–1–18Stade Toulousain29 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 1.4 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · La Rochelle by 0.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | La Rochelle 30–27 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2026-05-17 | La Rochelle 38–10 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-12-28 | Stade Toulousain 60–14 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2025-01-04 | La Rochelle 22–19 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-09-15 | Stade Toulousain 35–27 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 29. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.