La Rochelle vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 56.2%draw 2.5%41.3% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 67.3%draw 2.5%30.2% La RochelleLa Rochelle 43.0%draw 2.5%54.5% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Toulousain and 21 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 2 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
La Rochelle 1748, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 115 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle9–2–17Stade Toulousain28 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 1.3 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Stade Toulousain by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | La Rochelle 38–10 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-12-28 | Stade Toulousain 60–14 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2025-01-04 | La Rochelle 22–19 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-09-15 | Stade Toulousain 35–27 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2024-06-21 | Stade Toulousain 39–23 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 28. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.