La Rochelle vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 57.7%draw 2.5%39.8% StormersStormers 71.1%draw 2.5%26.4% La RochelleLa Rochelle 42.0%draw 2.5%55.5% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stormers and 21 La Rochelle, half of them between 5 Stormers and 11 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 3 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
La Rochelle 1820, Stormers 1845 — 25 points, favouring Stormers
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle1–0–2Stormers3 meetings, 2023 to 2025 · Stormers by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Stormers 42–21 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium |
| 2024-04-06 | Stormers 21–22 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-12-16 | Stormers 21–20 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | DHL Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.