La Rochelle vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 80.6%draw 2.5%16.9% ToulonToulon 62.8%draw 2.5%34.7% La RochelleLa Rochelle 58.9%draw 2.5%38.6% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Toulon and 32 La Rochelle, half of them between 2 La Rochelle and 20 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 9 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-25 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
La Rochelle 1820, Toulon 1663 — 157 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle16–1–9Toulon26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 3.4 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · La Rochelle by 8.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Toulon 20–21 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2026-01-04 | La Rochelle 66–0 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-11-08 | Toulon 39–14 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-01-26 | Toulon 45–26 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-09-08 | La Rochelle 19–15 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.