La Rochelle vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 88.7%draw 2.5%8.8% VannesVannes 37.2%draw 2.5%60.3% La RochelleLa Rochelle 78.0%draw 2.5%19.5% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 38 La Rochelle, half of them between 4 La Rochelle and 25 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 13 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-25 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
La Rochelle 1820, Vannes 1280 — 540 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle1–0–1Vannes2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Vannes by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Vannes 29–30 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
| 2024-11-30 | La Rochelle 14–23 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.