La Rochelle vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
La Rochelle 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% VannesLa Rochelle 62.3%draw 2.5%35.2% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Vannes and 37 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 9 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours La Rochelle, negative favours Vannes.
La Rochelle 1748, Vannes 1510 — 238 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle1–0–0Vannes1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · La Rochelle by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Vannes 29–30 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.