La Rochelle vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle 90.1%draw 2.5%7.4% ZebreZebre 19.8%draw 2.5%77.7% La RochelleLa Rochelle 83.8%draw 2.5%13.7% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 La Rochelle and 40 La Rochelle, half of them between 5 La Rochelle and 27 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 14 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
La Rochelle 1820, Zebre 1071 — 750 points, favouring La Rochelle
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
La Rochelle3–0–1Zebre4 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · La Rochelle by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-19 | Zebre 10–22 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2019-01-11 | La Rochelle 32–12 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2015-12-19 | Zebre 25–5 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2015-12-11 | La Rochelle 27–19 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.