Leicester Tigers vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 48.9%draw 2.5%48.6% LeinsterLeinster 77.6%draw 2.5%19.9% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 31.3%draw 2.5%66.2% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Leinster and 20 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 7 Leinster and 9 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Leinster 1915 — 115 points, favouring Leinster
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Leicester Tigers are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Leinster are on 48.6%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers0–0–5Leinster5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Leinster by 15.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-12 | Leicester Tigers 15–23 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-04-06 | Leinster 36–22 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-01-20 | Leicester Tigers 10–27 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2023-04-07 | Leinster 55–24 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-05-07 | Leicester Tigers 14–23 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.