Leicester Tigers vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 43.9%draw 2.5%53.6% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 78.6%draw 2.5%18.9% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 30.8%draw 2.5%66.7% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Montpellier Herault and 16 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 9 Montpellier Herault and 7 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 1 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 172 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers0–0–1Montpellier Herault1 meeting, 2021 to 2021 · Montpellier Herault by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-21 | Leicester Tigers 17–18 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Allianz Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.