Leicester Tigers vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 64.1%draw 2.5%33.4% MunsterMunster 63.1%draw 2.5%34.4% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 47.6%draw 2.5%49.9% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Munster and 23 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 4 Munster and 13 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 4 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Munster 1728 — 72 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers3–0–3Munster6 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Munster by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-17 | Leicester Tigers 16–25 Munster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2017-12-09 | Munster 33–10 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2016-12-17 | Leicester Tigers 18–16 Munster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2016-12-10 | Munster 38–0 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2015-12-20 | Leicester Tigers 17–6 Munster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.