Leicester Tigers vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 68.1%draw 2.5%29.4% MunsterMunster 52.7%draw 2.5%44.8% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 56.8%draw 2.5%40.7% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Munster and 31 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 7 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Munster.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Munster 1670 — 170 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers3–0–3Munster6 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Munster by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-17 | Leicester Tigers 16–25 Munster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2017-12-09 | Munster 33–10 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2016-12-17 | Leicester Tigers 18–16 Munster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2016-12-10 | Munster 38–0 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2015-12-20 | Leicester Tigers 17–6 Munster | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.