Leicester Tigers vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 57.6%draw 2.5%39.9% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 60.6%draw 2.5%36.9% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 47.1%draw 2.5%50.4% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Northampton Saints and 22 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 3 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Northampton Saints 1918 — 78 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers15–0–8Northampton Saints23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 5.2 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Leicester Tigers by 7.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Northampton Saints 45–31 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester Tigers 41–17 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-10-11 | Northampton Saints 32–26 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-03-21 | Northampton Saints 0–33 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-10-12 | Leicester Tigers 24–8 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.