Leicester Tigers vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers host Northampton Saints on Saturday 24 October at Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium, Leicester, so Leicester Tigers are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Leicester Tigers 51.9%draw 2.5%45.6% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 73.4%draw 2.5%24.1% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 37.5%draw 2.5%60.0% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Northampton Saints and 21 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 6 Northampton Saints and 10 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 1 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Northampton Saints 1957 — 157 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers15–0–9Northampton Saints24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Leicester Tigers by 7.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Northampton Saints 45–31 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester Tigers 41–17 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-10-11 | Northampton Saints 32–26 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-03-21 | Northampton Saints 0–33 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-10-12 | Leicester Tigers 24–8 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.