Leicester Tigers vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 57.1%draw 2.5%40.4% PauPau 63.9%draw 2.5%33.6% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 45.2%draw 2.5%52.3% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Pau and 22 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 6 Pau and 11 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 2 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Pau 1818 — 18 points, favouring Pau
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers1–0–2Pau3 meetings, 2019 to 2026 · Pau by 3.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Pau 41–17 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2020-01-18 | Pau 24–17 Leicester Tigers | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2019-11-16 | Leicester Tigers 41–20 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.