Leicester Tigers vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 71.4%draw 2.5%26.1% Racing 92Racing 92 59.5%draw 2.5%38.0% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 55.3%draw 2.5%42.2% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Racing 92 and 29 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 1 Racing 92 and 16 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 6 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Racing 92 1632 — 168 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers1–0–6Racing 927 meetings, 2016 to 2018 · Racing 92 by 9.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-16 | Leicester Tigers 11–34 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2018-12-09 | Racing 92 36–26 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2018-01-21 | Leicester Tigers 20–23 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2017-10-14 | Racing 92 22–18 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
| 2017-01-14 | Racing 92 34–3 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.