Leicester Tigers vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 68.3%draw 2.5%29.2% Racing 92Racing 92 55.7%draw 2.5%41.8% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 55.3%draw 2.5%42.2% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Racing 92 and 28 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 5 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Racing 92.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Racing 92 1707 — 133 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers1–0–6Racing 927 meetings, 2016 to 2018 · Racing 92 by 9.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-12-16 | Leicester Tigers 11–34 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2018-12-09 | Racing 92 36–26 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2018-01-21 | Leicester Tigers 20–23 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2017-10-14 | Racing 92 22–18 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
| 2017-01-14 | Racing 92 34–3 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Yves Du Manoir |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.