Leicester Tigers vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 76.7%draw 2.5%20.8% Sale SharksSale Sharks 48.7%draw 2.5%48.8% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 65.3%draw 2.5%32.2% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Sale Sharks and 27 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 1 Leicester Tigers and 17 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 7 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Sale Sharks 1504 — 296 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers9–0–15Sale Sharks24 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 4.6 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Sale Sharks by 5.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sale Sharks 33–47 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-10-25 | Leicester Tigers 36–35 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-06-07 | Leicester Tigers 21–16 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-05-09 | Leicester Tigers 44–34 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-12-01 | Sale Sharks 39–25 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.