Leicester Tigers vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 73.5%draw 2.5%24.0% Sale SharksSale Sharks 42.5%draw 2.5%55.0% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 65.4%draw 2.5%32.1% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Sale Sharks and 30 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 7 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Sale Sharks 1558 — 282 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers8–0–15Sale Sharks23 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Sale Sharks by 5.0 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Sale Sharks by 5.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sale Sharks 33–47 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-10-25 | Leicester Tigers 36–35 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-06-07 | Leicester Tigers 21–16 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-05-09 | Leicester Tigers 44–34 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-12-01 | Sale Sharks 39–25 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.