Leicester Tigers vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 54.8%draw 2.5%42.7% SaracensSaracens 70.1%draw 2.5%27.4% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 40.9%draw 2.5%56.6% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Saracens and 18 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 7 Saracens and 9 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 1 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Saracens 1861 — 61 points, favouring Saracens
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers8–0–16Saracens24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 7.0 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Saracens by 3.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Leicester Tigers 38–40 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2026-04-25 | Saracens 19–15 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2026-01-04 | Leicester Tigers 36–28 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-03-30 | Leicester Tigers 22–29 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-10-26 | Saracens 29–32 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.