Leicester Tigers vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 63.0%draw 2.5%34.5% SaracensSaracens 58.0%draw 2.5%39.5% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 51.3%draw 2.5%46.2% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Saracens and 24 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 4 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Saracens.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Saracens 1802 — 38 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers8–0–15Saracens23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 7.2 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Saracens by 3.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Saracens 19–15 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2026-01-04 | Leicester Tigers 36–28 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-03-30 | Leicester Tigers 22–29 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-10-26 | Saracens 29–32 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-01-06 | Leicester Tigers 19–10 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.