Leicester Tigers vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 83.6%draw 2.5%13.9% ScarletsScarlets 30.6%draw 2.5%66.9% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 77.5%draw 2.5%20.0% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Scarlets and 33 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 3 Leicester Tigers and 21 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 10 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Scarlets 1273 — 527 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers2–0–1Scarlets3 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Leicester Tigers by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-12 | Scarlets 33–10 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2018-10-19 | Leicester Tigers 45–27 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2015-01-16 | Leicester Tigers 40–23 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.