Leicester Tigers vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 54.7%draw 2.5%42.8% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 54.8%draw 2.5%42.7% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Francais Paris and 24 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 5 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 65 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers3–0–1Stade Francais Paris4 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Leicester Tigers by 7.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | Stade Francais Paris 24–27 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2016-04-10 | Leicester Tigers 41–13 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2016-01-24 | Stade Francais Paris 36–21 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2015-11-13 | Leicester Tigers 33–20 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.