Leicester Tigers vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 63.6%draw 2.5%33.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 59.3%draw 2.5%38.2% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 50.0%draw 2.5%47.5% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Francais Paris and 23 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 3 Stade Francais Paris and 13 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 4 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 69 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers3–0–1Stade Francais Paris4 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Leicester Tigers by 7.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | Stade Francais Paris 24–27 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2016-04-10 | Leicester Tigers 41–13 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2016-01-24 | Stade Francais Paris 36–21 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2015-11-13 | Leicester Tigers 33–20 Stade Francais Paris | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.