Leicester Tigers vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 42.1%draw 2.5%55.4% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 79.2%draw 2.5%18.3% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 27.4%draw 2.5%70.1% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Stade Toulousain and 14 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 11 Stade Toulousain and 6 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 2 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 192 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers0–0–1Stade Toulousain1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Stade Toulousain by 68.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Stade Toulousain 80–12 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.