Leicester Tigers vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 67.7%draw 2.5%29.8% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 43.5%draw 2.5%54.0% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Toulousain and 23 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 2 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 23 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers0–0–1Stade Toulousain1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Stade Toulousain by 68.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Stade Toulousain 80–12 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.