Leicester Tigers vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leicester Tigers 55.0%draw 2.5%42.5% StormersStormers 72.6%draw 2.5%24.9% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 36.8%draw 2.5%60.7% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leicester Tigers v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stormers and 18 Leicester Tigers, half of them between 7 Stormers and 9 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 1 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leicester Tigers winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leicester Tigers, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Leicester Tigers 1800, Stormers 1845 — 45 points, favouring Stormers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers1–0–1Stormers2 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Stormers by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Stormers 39–26 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-12-10 | Leicester Tigers 35–26 Stormers | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.