Leicester Tigers vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 67.2%draw 2.5%30.3% StormersStormers 53.4%draw 2.5%44.1% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 55.8%draw 2.5%41.7% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Stormers and 26 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 5 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Stormers.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Stormers 1716 — 124 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers1–0–1Stormers2 meetings, 2023 to 2026 · Stormers by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Stormers 39–26 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-12-10 | Leicester Tigers 35–26 Stormers | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.