Leicester Tigers vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Leicester Tigers 78.9%draw 2.5%18.6% ToulonToulon 32.7%draw 2.5%64.8% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 73.0%draw 2.5%24.5% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leicester Tigers wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Toulon and 33 Leicester Tigers, with the middle run at 9 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Leicester Tigers are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Leicester Tigers, negative favours Toulon.
Leicester Tigers 1840, Toulon 1435 — 405 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Leicester Tigers are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leicester Tigers0–0–1Toulon1 meeting, 2020 to 2020 · Toulon by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-26 | Toulon 34–19 Leicester Tigers | European Challenge Cup | Stade Mayol |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.