Leinster vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Leinster 82.2%draw 2.5%15.3% LionsLions 38.4%draw 2.5%59.1% LeinsterLeinster 73.8%draw 2.5%23.7% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Leinster v Lions, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Leinster wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Lions and 34 Leinster, half of them between 3 Leinster and 22 Leinster, with the middle run at 11 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-13 on a tight afternoon and 34-23 on an open one.
Why Leinster are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Leinster winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Leinster, a bar to the left helps Lions.
Leinster 1915, Lions 1664 — 251 points, favouring Leinster
Leinster are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Leinster5–0–2Lions7 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Leinster by 9.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Lions 27–26 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2026-05-30 | Leinster 59–10 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2026-05-09 | Leinster 31–7 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-10-26 | Leinster 24–6 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-04-20 | Lions 44–12 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.